Although the best documented changes are in heatwaves, it is very probable that droughts, intense rainfall, and cold waves will also become more frequent and intense over the coming decades, while hailstorms will increase in intensity only.
Changes in the precipitation regime, together with earlier thaws in spring, could cause more frequent and intense flooding. While there is no clear trend across the territory, since there are many factors in play, particularly an increase in the amount of forest and changes in land use, this trend could be masked.
In recent decades "once in a century" floods have become more frequent in much of the Pyrenees, although they have caused less damage thanks to efforts to reduce exposure levels.
Because of the ongoing process of rural depopulation and the increase in wooded areas, it is very probable that in the future the problem will affect certain tourist-oriented areas of the Pyrenees.
We can expect natural events, usually triggered by weather and climatic factors (high temperatures, intense precipitation) to be more frequent in the future.
The rising temperatures and heatwaves have led to an increase in rockfalls, landslides, mudslides, and similar phenomena.
In some areas of the Pyrenees there has been an increase of very large mudslides in recent years.
However, it is still difficult to define the exact relationship of the intensity of precipitations and the rising temperatures with the increase in events such as falling masonry, landslides and collapses.
Global warming will probably alter the dynamic of the frozen areas and glaciers of the Pyrenees, altering their stability. This could increase the risk of more potentially dangerous episodes, such as rockfalls and landslides, especially in steeply sloping areas.In recent years, increased landslides have been detected on the north-west face of the Vignemale, associated with deterioration of permafrost (permanently frozen land), undoubtedly due to degradation processes caused by high temperatures.
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